'Messy' campaign has Dutton in peril amid poll plunge

The coalition's primary vote has dropped to 31 per cent, down from 33 per cent last week, the latest YouGov poll provided to AAP shows.

Labor's primary vote is up 0.5 per cent to 33.5 per cent.

The lowest-ever primary vote the coalition has received in YouGov polling is driven by the opposition leader's unpopularity, director of public data Paul Smith says. 

"The public have clearly made a decision that they don't want Peter Dutton as prime minister," he told AAP.

The YouGov polling shows Labor leading the coalition by 53.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

The poll results indicated the largest turnaround and rejection of an opposition since 1993, when then-coalition leader John Hewson led prime minister Paul Keating in the polls for two years until "it all changed in the campaign", Mr Smith said. 

ANU historian Frank Bongiorno said the coalition's campaign had been consistently poor with its electoral strategy marred by backflips and missteps.

"I don't recall a campaign quite as messy," Professor Bongiorno told AAP.

"Simply waiting around for a government to fall over is a pretty dangerous sort of strategy.

"(Mr) Dutton and the coalition seem to believe that you go out and pursue seats in the outer suburbs and the regions through particular issues, such as the cost of living and perhaps also culture wars."

Mr Dutton's focus on soft populism rather than hard policies could be shaped by his "instinctive" conservative Queensland political background and was not resonating with a wide swathe of voters, Prof Bongiorno said.

"They (the coalition) have failed to really chase the votes they need in other areas, including large parts of the major cities that have gone over either to Labor, the Greens or teals."

Labor's support is higher than its 2022 federal election result of 52.1 per cent, while the coalition's is 4.7 per cent lower than it achieved at that election.

Anthony Albanese (50 per cent) has also extended his lead over Mr Dutton (35 per cent) as preferred prime minister.

Mr Dutton's net satisfaction rating dipped to minus 18 from minus 10 last week, while Mr Albanese's was down slightly to minus seven from minus six. 

"Anthony Albanese is for the first time the preferred prime minister amongst all states, amongst women and men and in regional and rural Australia, as well as the capital cities," Mr Smith said.

A separate poll reinforces the challenge facing Mr Dutton to become prime minister, after he was viewed as the most distrusted politician in the country.

The opposition leader was considered to be 220 per cent more distrustful than Mr Albanese, the Roy Morgan survey shows.

YouGov polling also shows One Nation could benefit from the slide away from the coalition, with the party up 3.5 per cent to 10.5 per cent.

"It positions them well to probably have their best result in decades," Mr Smith said.

The coalition had a strategy of winning in working-class seats but its now-dumped policy of banning public servants from working from home "completely alienated a large group of voters", he said.

The YouGov poll of 1500 voters was conducted between April 17 and Tuesday, with a margin of error of 3.3 per cent.

Australian Associated Press