Theories thrive while we wait for the facts

It was obvious the time had come to shelve the holiday reading. Gorging on spy novels had left me out on the precarious ledge of conspiracy theory.

Baffled by the explosive laden caravan drama, I was overcome by that very human urge to ponder possible explanations. I'm sure many others were, too.

How did two unlikely actors - seemingly penniless and adrift - allegedly become caught up on the periphery of an anti-Semitic terror plot?

Why was it that many of the people charged over other anti-Semitic offences did not have obvious ideological motivations? Were they hired bit-players, as police suggested? If so, who was pulling the strings and why? Were they foreign actors, as hinted at by the AFP?

Before the caravan's discovery was exposed after a leak to the Murdoch media empire - the leak itself raising further questions because it's compromised the investigation - the graffiti attacks bore similar hallmarks to a white supremacist campaign waged against Asians in the early 1980s. Back then, however, there was little public outcry.

Last week, the caravan cast the whole thing in a much more sinister light. Could this wave of nastiness involve more than a bunch of drum-beating cosplay Nazis?

And that's when I found myself out on the shaky ledge. When there are no ready answers, all we have are theories. The one that kept me awake in the lonely hours holds little value other than as a plotline in my own spy novel - if I ever got around to writing it.

Foreign interference had me tossing and turning. We have an election approaching and there's no better way to disrupt it than by fuelling an emergency. Who benefits? The Coalition obviously. And Israel, whose conduct of the Gaza war has left it isolated on the world stage. In Australia, we've all but stopped talking about the plight of the Palestinians.

Stop it, I told my overactive imagination. Just. Go. To. Sleep.

But the "theory" was still there in the morning so I phoned friends. They'd had similar thoughts. However, we did agree to put those misgivings to one side and let the investigation into the caravan play out before leaping to conclusions. That's the sensible thing to do.

For now, I've jotted my homegrown conspiracy theory down in the notebook reserved for the novel I'm unlikely to write. Speculation is fiction when there's no evidence.

Next to it, some fact. I've scribbled "Operation Susannah", a reference to a fumbled false-flag provocation mounted by Israeli intelligence in Egypt in the lead-up to the Suez crisis in the mid-1950s. The plot involved planting bombs on American and British-owned civilian targets and blaming the attacks on Muslim nationalists with the intention of convincing Britain to keep its troops on the Suez Canal.

I've taken note of the words of the grown-up in all this, ASIO boss Mike Burgess, who said on Thursday there was no ongoing threat to the public.

And I've put the espionage thrillers away for next summer and, because truth is often stranger, returned to non-fiction.

HAVE YOUR SAY: Was it irresponsible to leak the story of the explosives-laden caravan in the midst of the police investigation? Have the police and intelligence agencies properly handled the wave of anti-Semitic attacks? Will the federal government's response to the issue change the way you vote? Email us: echidna@theechidna.com.au

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IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:

- Peter Dutton says cultural diversity jobs within the public service "do nothing" for everyday Australians, after the Public Service Commission last year committed to improve its focus on representation after reports of racism and discrimination.

- A leading counterterrorism expert has defended Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's refusal to discuss the alleged terrorist plot undercovered in Sydney, as the Coalition ramps up attacks on his handling of anti-Semitism.

- Australia's road toll has risen for four straight years for the first time since 1966 with safety experts demanding action.

THEY SAID IT: "The beauty of any conspiracy theory is that because it can't be proved, that just makes it more 'real'. It's not a question of believing or not believing, really; it's more a question of just accepting a series of probabilities that lead to an undeniable conclusion." - Dean Haglund, actor from The X-Files

YOU SAID IT: Garry wrote that the backlash against diversity was a long time coming and entirely predictable.

Michael writes: "I don't see mixed-race casts in historical dramas as any more (or less) problematic than making such dramas in English. On the other hand, I'd like to see some census figures on gender diversity in the country, to help ensure we don't overcommit resources to what may be tiny minorities."

"I have strong feelings about Donald Trump's pinning, based upon his 'opinion', fault for Thursday's American Airlines crash on DEI," writes James from Bathurst. "I honestly find that politicising of an accident that is most probably, like all these things, quite complex in its circumstances, to be repulsive."

Lee writes: "In general I believe we need to target diversity because it helps stop groupthink in work and social or community spaces. However, I have worked in an environment where a certain culturally affiliated group was given a role based solely on that. Everyone else had to have at least a tertiary qualification to apply. While there were some of the non-tertiary trained workers who could do the job well, most could not. There has to be, in some roles, more than just a cultural affiliation required."

"Love the article, and so true," writes Barry. "Being fair and reasonable is more important than having quotas. Some of the crap I've seen in our education systems regarding diversity, gender and the like are just ridiculous. It's good to see the balance swinging back in the US and let's hope it also starts happening here."

Susan writes: "The 'hero' roles on screen and in print for women when I was growing up were all male or in some way trivialised - helpmeets, assistants or a colourful range of bad girl roles. People of colour were slaves, servants or powerful chiefs who needed to be killed/deposed. Much better now - why not have a black queen? Cats obviously get more uncritical love and care than many human children so deciding to be one surely raises questions about the child's self worth and home environment."

"Qualifications, competence and ability are essential regardless of colour or gender," writes Elaine. "Common sense also is a desirable attribute, too often not considered."

Jennifer writes: "The problem is not the push for diversity and equity but that these initiatives are pursued for all the wrong reasons. They're pursued to prevent lawsuits and reputational damage. If they were pursued because they improve organisational performance, that would be realistic, understandable and supported by most people. Companies with greater diversity on their boards and in leadership perform better. As for equity, it is just smart to hire the person best equipped for the job. If organisations promoted these facts, backlash would be less acceptable and credible as it would be limited to those who feared loss of unearned personal power."

"I learned very early in my scientific career that classifying anything in biology into boxes did not work," writes Hilary. "There were always exceptions and these were always the most interesting and informative. So is it the case with gender. Leave gender diversity where it is. Stop trying to put gender diversity into boxes. Recently I was filling out a form in a local arts organisation and below my name I was supposed to indicate my pronoun! We have really gone too far."

David writes: "You wrote: 'Tuskegee Airmen, a legendary group of World War II black American pilots'. The Tuskegee Airmen weren't just pilots but also included navigators and bomb aimers. A small but important difference."