PREDICTING electoral boundary changes is a bit like having a punt on who will win the Bathurst 1000 this year, according to federal Member for Calare Andrew Gee, whose seat might be in the firing line in a NSW redistribution.
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The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has confirmed that NSW will drop from 47 to 46 federal seats due to Western Australia's rise in population earning it an additional MP in Canberra.
The AEC has emphasised, however, that the process of determining how the boundaries for NSW's federal seats will be changed has only just begun.
Elections expert Antony Green, in a recent post on his election blog, said one option for the AEC would be "to push [the seat of] Macquarie west into Lithgow and Bathurst, almost certainly requiring Calare or Riverina to be abolished".
ACM asked MP Mr Gee if he had any thoughts on Calare potentially disappearing under a redistribution or any thoughts on a redistribution in general.
"Predicting electoral boundary changes is a bit like long range weather forecasting, or having a punt on who will master Mount Panorama-Wahluu this October," he said in a statement.
"It's a very uncertain business with a lot still up in the air.
"The redistribution is a lengthy process that has only just started, so it's a question of working through it a step at a time.
"The folks that draw up the map have a lot to consider, so it's too early to speculate on what may or may not happen."
The AEC told ACM earlier this month, in regards to the redistribution in NSW, that there are indicative timings only for the various steps.
Under the indicative timings, there will be a call for suggestions for the NSW redistribution in the third and fourth quarters of this year and then proposed boundaries and names will be released for comment in the second quarter of next year.
The current seat of Macquarie covers Richmond and Windsor in north-west Sydney's Hawkesbury region as well as the towns and villages of the Blue Mountains, but it has stretched far enough west to cover Bathurst in the past.
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