Is the Liberal Party stuck in a rut or just experiencing a cyclical downturn? The only way to find out is to go back to first principles. What does any political party seek to do? What does a successful political party look like?
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The defeat of the Dominic Perrottet NSW government eliminated the last remaining Liberal or Coalition government on the Australian mainland. This led to increased speculation about the source of the party's problems. Then its defeat in the Aston federal byelection raised the speculation to fever pitch. Editorials spoke of the party's sick organisation and existential identity crisis.
Political parties everywhere exist for a common set of purposes. Before looking at them, it is worth noting that the modern Liberal Party of Australia, a successful operation nearly 80 years old, exists within two major constraints.
The first is that Australia maintains a virtual two-party system which constrains both the Liberals and Labor. It is a strong encouragement towards unity and a broad church because splinter parties from the big two are rarely successful in the long term. Otherwise, the factions within the big parties would suffer greater temptation to split into smaller and more cohesive parts. The danger of schism would be greater. Single member electorates for the House of Representatives rather than proportional representation strengthen the hold of big parties.
The second is that despite the breakaway creation of the Nationals to better represent rural interests more than 100 years ago the Liberals have deliberately tried to enlarge their tent by forming a Coalition with the rural party. This is a mixed blessing, leading to costs as well as benefits, which always runs the risk of suffocating specifically urban values and interests within the larger body.
All political parties are formed to articulate the values and beliefs of a section of the community. It encourages that section to sink their individual differences and to come together in one organisation for what they hold in common.
The organisation exists primarily to choose candidates for election and to stand them under a common banner. Together they fight elections with the aim of forming a parliamentary majority. From among their candidates and MPs they foster leadership and anoint their chosen leaders.
If they collectively win an election they form a government which seeks to govern for the community in a way that serves the common good but reflects the values and policies they took to the election.
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Given these general principles, what are the current problems of the Liberal Party?
They are failing by not winning elections. The NSW result can be excused after 12 years in office, though it followed many other state election losses. The Aston byelection can't be excused because the historical record and cost of living pressures set up the opposition party to win easily.
Not only are the Liberals not winning, but they appear to be an inefficient organisation. The failure to choose candidates in a timely manner is a basic fault. It should be core business but takes second place to party brawls. Big parties, by definition, must be broad in their appeal, but currently the Liberals appear to be too broad. Culture warriors on the extreme right, including some state and federal MPs, have attached themselves to the party. In some cases, the religious right has set out to transform the party in their own image.
At best, this breadth makes the Liberal brand fuzzy, but at worst it makes it too right-wing. Both images are unattractive and unappealing to voters. That should be sorted out quickly, by expulsions if necessary.
Its sense of priorities seems to be at odds with the priorities of the sensible centre. That centre now includes climate action, equal rights for women, integrity, and potentially support for an Indigenous Voice to Parliament. It does not include undue emphasis on opposition to transgender people.
In relatively even contests between the two big party blocs appealing to those voters in the moderate middle is what wins elections.
Finally, there is the problem of leadership. Losing elections means that many potentially good leaders are eliminated. That has happened to the Liberals around the country. Their pool of leaders has become too shallow.
This was not the problem for the Liberals in NSW. But its conservative federal leader, Peter Dutton, is so unpopular in many parts of the country that his presence is unwelcome in these election campaigns. The Aston byelection was also held while the moderate Victorian state Liberal leader, John Pezzutto, was being rebuffed by his own party room over his wish to expel the anti-trans activist, Moira Deeming, from its ranks. Neither example inspires confidence among voters.
Strong and popular leaders are hard to find, but the Liberals should be looking for them urgently.
Australian party politics is cyclical, though it is also dotted with splits and rebirths. The Liberals will rebound, even if it takes time. I doubt that the current crisis will signal the party's total downfall, but a big shake-up, including some on the right leaving the party, is quite possible. That would bring more coherence and electability.
The Coalition with the Nationals is hurting them; so are the right-wing extremists attached to the party inside and outside parliaments. They continue to be disengaged from much of the conventional wisdom of the moderate majority. The future of the Liberals lies in moving their centre of gravity somewhere closer to the moderate centre of modern Australian values and beliefs.
- John Warhurst is an emeritus professor of political science at the Australian National University.
