John Warhurst | Chris Minns led Labor to victory in NSW, but major parties shouldn't be assured

This outcome was always likely given the opinion polls. But like the federal election last May the doubt was always whether Labor would receive a majority (the magic number was 47 seats out of 93 in the Legislative Assembly) or become a minority government like its predecessor. The latter is likely. Absent and postal voters will decide the result.

These voters usually favour the Coalition parties for socioeconomic reasons. They travel more.

The count on Saturday night was slow and the experts careful. Nonetheless, despite several Liberal spokespeople pointing out that Labor had not claimed majority government, the impression was that Labor would end up with a majority. They will probably be wrong.

The campaign was civil and low key. Outgoing premier, Dominic Perrottet, and new Premier, Chris Minns, apparently are on good terms.

Commentators praised the style of the campaign as a first for Australia and a model for Australian politics overall. This was an exaggeration. The last South Australian campaign for example, was equally civil. Let's hope it catches on with their counterparts elsewhere.

Some polls picked the size of the swing, but most didn't. It looks like the two-party preferred vote will eventually be Labor 53.8 per cent and the Coalition 46.2 per cent.

The swing to Labor was about 5.8 per cent. The result was complicated by the strong performance of independents. The Coalition was reduced to about a third of the seats.

The swing to Labor was patchy across seats, but relatively even across large geographical areas. Some marginal Liberal MPs survived, while huge swings unseated some others. Labor did especially well in western Sydney, but also won regional seats.

The Liberals campaigned hard to shore up the teal-type seats it held and were generally successful. But this introduced inter-regional tensions into the values exhibited in their campaign.

Interpretations of which type of voter was most attracted to Labor vary. Some observers claim public sector workers, especially low-paid women, were especially attracted by Labor's promise to abolish public sector wage caps. Some say younger voters, and others argue women in general.

Older voters probably stuck disproportionately with the Coalition as they did in the federal election. The Liberals still have a "woman" problem, which was quite obvious prior to the election when Perrottet failed to get more women preselected. Senior Liberal, Anthony Roberts, claimed this week that more women candidates must be a priority for the party.

The Nationals held most of their seats, but lost Monaro and failed to win back the three independent seats in Orange, Barwon and Murray (formerly Shooters, Fishers and Farmers). The incumbent in Murray, Helen Dalton, faced a campaign from ClubsNSW in light of her stance on gaming reform.

The Nationals criticised the pro-environment Liberal deputy leader, Matt Kean, for weakening the Coalition in rural areas.

But the flight of young people from the rural areas to the cities protects the Nationals from big swings from progressive voters. Rural Australia is much older than the metropolitan areas and subsequently more conservative.

The Perrottet government was praised after its defeat as among the best governments in Australia. It was relatively progressive, especially on climate change and gambling regulation, and had a proud record on building infrastructure. But it was challenged by natural disasters, including its response to widespread floods.

It was seeking a fourth term, creating an it's-time factor, but it had other weaknesses. Despite the good working relationship between the conservative Perrottet and the progressive Kean, its factions wage open warfare.

This instability damages not just the Liberal brand itself but the efficiency of its operations in key areas such as preselections. Perrottet was the fourth Liberal premier in 12 years and scandals, corruption and retirements wreaked havoc with the government's reputation. Finally, Scott Morrison's legacy was still a drag on the state party.

Minns is a presentable and safe pair of hands. He is a moderate Catholic who voted against voluntary assisted dying legislation. The Labor campaign was generally modest; too timid on the regulation of problem gambling. There will be a small trial of cashless gaming cards rather than their immediate introduction. Labor's women candidates won a majority of its new seats, and Minns has promised a near 50:50 women/men cabinet. Prue Car is Deputy Premier.

This election showed again that Australian voters are no longer wedded to the major parties. Independents and minor parties polled 28 per cent of the vote (up 3 per cent), despite generally lacking the election resources of the three major parties.

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The Greens look like holding their three seats on a slightly improved vote (10 per cent). There will be several new Independents, including one teal-type, for a total of eight. One Nation talked a big game in Western Sydney but ended up with probably just one seat in the upper house. One Nation's relations with the major parties are an exception to the general civility of the campaign.

The independents are a real cross-section of the political continuum, city and country, ranging from Alex Greenwich in Sydney, former mayor Michael Regan in Wakehurst, Dr Joe McGirr in Wagga Wagga, Greg Piper in Lake Macquarie, and former Liberal Judy Hannan in Wollondilly, to the three former Shooters, Fishers and Farmers rural MPs. Notably Greenwich, McGirr and Piper have guaranteed supply to the new government. Minns prefers to deal with independents rather than form an alliance of any sort with the Greens.

The government's second potential problem is the upper house, but it looks like it may have a progressive majority in the Legislative Council to lessen its concerns.