Defence Minister Peter Dutton says AUKUS subs deal being fast-tracked

If the design and location of build for Australia's next generation of submarines is sorted in the next few months it would be very early in the originally announced 18-month scoping plan for the controversial deal announced last September with the United Kingdom and the United States.

It also indicates that the build location now is more likely to be offshore, with ANU defence and security expert John Blaxland telling The Canberra Times he is "increasingly pessimistic that a submarine will be built in Australia" and will most likely be built in either the UK or US.

Mr Dutton made the significant update on the deal which led to the dumping of a $90 billion contract with France during an appearance on the ABC's Insiders program on Sunday. He also confirmed that missiles and ammunition from Australia have arrived in Ukraine as it defends itself from Russian invasion, while also raising the prospect of Russian chemical warfare in Ukraine and concerns about cooperation between Russia and China.

But the design decision on the new submarines being not far off was a surprise.

"We will have an announcement within the next couple of months about which boat we are going with, what we can do in the interim," the minister said.

"Both the US and the UK understand the timelines, they understand what is happening in the Indo-Pacific and they are very, very willing partners."

The AUKUS deal which is expected to deliver the first subs by around 2040 is advancing with the next set of trilateral discussions expected at the end of the month in Australia.

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With an election now likely in May, a coinciding announcement on the submarines will add to what is already regarded as a "national security election" and put pressure on the federal opposition to back the government's decision with the two key allies.

Professor Blaxland said the timing would be beyond just Australia's choice, but still could be seen as "helpful" for the Morrison government.

"I think it's serendipitous. It is the luck of the draw in terms of timing," he said. "Certainly, Dutton would have been pushing for this to be accelerated, but this wouldn't happen if the United States and the United Kingdom weren't equally apprised of it's importance. So this is beyond the domestic political equation in Canberra."

Any fast-tracking changes the chances for a domestic build, which would lead to more local jobs than special projects to add to an overseas build.

"I'm actually increasingly pessimistic that a submarine will be built in Australia," Professor Blaxland said.

"I'm now coming to the view that what will happen is that it will be built in the UK or the US, most likely the US because they've got the capacity to grow their rate of production to fit our requirements and as an offset, they will probably announce a number of major projects affecting South Australia and Adelaide in particular, relating to advanced technologies, AI, robotics, perhaps electric vehicles, things like that, that will take the sting out of the loss of the submarine prospects for Adelaide.

"But the bottom line is that if we were to stick with a submarine deal for Adelaide, we'd be talking about a blowout in time, not a shortening of the time."